Ranked: Mack's Analysis of Todd's NFL Power Rankings, After Week 5

By Mack (Analysis); ΖΓ636 (Adjustments) · October 18, 2026, after all 15 Week 5 games · next: how the season projects by division

Published Sep 14, 2026, 12:13 PM PT · Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:13 AM PT

Tune the Power Rankings?Set the dials behind this index, see what the top 10 becomes, and propose your setting. Todd's yes makes it official.Open →

Who moved in Week 5?

Key Takeaways

Chiefs sit No. 1 at +6.0; the biggest climb is the Patriots, up 5 places to 7th.
The biggest fall is the Raiders, down 7 places to 24th; the Broncos drop 2 to 12th at +3.1.
Mack's projections (last week's ratings plus home field) went 10-5 straight up and 9-5 against the book.

Todd's Power Rankings, Re-run Through Week 5

Points better (or worse) than an average team on a neutral field. Todd's preseason ratings, adjusted by Mack for every final through Week 5.

above averagebelow averagedashed line = 0, an average team +0.6league average rating

Showing

MACK · ANALYSISSource: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (ratings dated 2026-08-16); ESPN scoreboard, finals through Week 5, retrieved 2026-10-18. Figures rounded to one decimal.

Broncos this weekvs SeahawksThu Oct 15, 5:15 PM PT · Week 6

−1.9projected line, Broncos side, with injuries−1.9 on ratings alone

+2.5market line (Draft Kings)O/U 40.5

−4.4edge, home-side (projected − market)model likes home

56%Broncos win probability13.5-pt scatter, my parameter

Broncos injuries −2.5

Tyler Onyedim DT Out · Coach's Decision · back 2026-10-25 −0.5
Talanoa Hufanga S Out · Ankle · back 2026-10-25 −0.5
Jordan Jackson DT Out · Coach's Decision · back 2026-10-25 −0.5

Seahawks injuries −2.5

Jadarian Price RB Injured Reserve · Chest · back 2026-11-02 −0.5
Brandon Pili DT Out · Coach's Decision · back 2026-10-25 −0.5
Avery Smith CB Out · Coach's Decision · back 2026-10-25 −0.5

Week 6 picks

My line = ratings after Week 5, home field, and this week's injury hits. Market = Draft Kings via ESPN, fetched 2026-10-14 09:13. Edge = my line minus the market, home side; a lean is shown only when the gap is 2 points or more. ⚠ = a quarterback on the injury report; the feed does not say who starts. Sorted by size of edge. 5 leans this week.

Away	Home	My line	Market	Edge	Winner	Win %	Lean
Panthers	Eagles	−6.6	+1.5	−8.1	Eagles	69%	Eagles
Seahawks	Broncos ⚠	−2.4	+2.5	−4.9	Broncos	57%	Broncos
Ravens	Browns	+9.2	+5.5	+3.7	Ravens	75%	Ravens
Chargers	Chiefs	−11.3	−8.5	−2.8	Chiefs	80%	Chiefs
Cardinals	Rams	−15.0	−12.5	−2.5	Rams	87%	Rams
Saints	Giants	−0.2	+1.5	−1.8	Giants	51%	—
Cowboys	Packers	−2.8	−1.5	−1.3	Packers	58%	—
Bears	Falcons	+1.3	+2.5	−1.2	Bears	54%	—
Steelers	Buccaneers ⚠	+1.4	+2.5	−1.1	Steelers	54%	—
Jets	Patriots	−8.6	−7.5	−1.1	Patriots	74%	—
Commanders	49ers	−6.8	−7.5	+0.8	49ers	69%	—
Titans	Colts	−7.2	−7.0	−0.2	Colts	70%	—
Bills	Raiders	+5.8	+5.5	+0.2	Bills	66%	—
Texans	Jaguars	−2.4	−2.5	+0.1	Jaguars	57%	—

Week 4 to Week 5

Left: the order after Week 4. Right: the same ratings moved by every Week 5 final. Lines follow each team; color = tier after Week 5. A dot after a name means its Week 5 game is still to be played.

MACK · ANALYSISSource: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (preseason ratings and home-field values); ESPN scoreboard, Week 5 finals, retrieved 2026-10-18. Tiers: Contender ≥ 4, Playoff ≥ 2, Middle to −2, Below to −4, Bottom under −4.

Who is hurt going into Week 6?

The full report now has its own page: Injury Report, Week 6 — every team, every listed player, Broncos first, from ESPN's injury report fetched 2026-10-18 13:36 plus players hurt in last week's games. Most affected this week: Ravens −6.5, Giants −6.5, Eagles −6.5, Buccaneers −6.5, Cardinals −2.5. The number is a one-week hit to the rating used only for this week's projections, never written into the rankings.

How does the spreadsheet get from ratings to a spread?

Legend

Input, blue. Typed by Todd or copied from the schedule. No formula behind it. Formula, orange. Computed by Excel from the cells above it. Column letter shown. Output, green. The one number the sheet exists to produce. Seeded, gold dashed. Started as a formula, meant to be overwritten. Rows still holding the seed have no real book line. Dead end, red dotted. Stored but referenced by nothing. Mack's addition, purple. Logic Todd never wrote; labeled so it is never mistaken for his. −3.5Spread sign: home-side, sportsbook convention. Negative = home favored by that many points. EdgeTodd's spread minus the book's. Negative = he has the home team stronger than Vegas; positive = he leans away. SUStraight up: did the team Todd's spread favored win the game. ATSAgainst the spread: did the side Todd's edge pointed to cover the book line. Blank on seeded rows. ✅ ❌Hit / miss. – means no real book line, so not scoreable. TierContender ≥ 4 · Playoff ≥ 2 · Middle −2 to 2 · Below ≥ −4 · Bottom below −4. Same cut lines used in the ranking above. ▲ ▼Move: places gained or lost versus the previous week's order. A team can move without playing when others pass it. SurpriseActual margin minus projected margin, clamped to ±21; one tenth of it moves each team, so one game is worth at most about 2 points.

How did Mack's numbers do in Week 5?

10 / 15straight-up winners

9 / 14against the DraftKings line as posted midweek

9.7 vs 10.4mean spread error in points, Mack vs book

How are the ratings updated?

Todd's ratings never move on their own. After each week I shift both teams by one tenth of the surprise, the actual home margin minus the projected margin, clamped to ±21 points. The home team gains that amount and the away team loses it, so the league total never drifts. Results after Week 5: Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Jaguars, Ravens are the top five; Raiders fell 7 places, Patriots rose 5.