Charted: How the 2026 NFL Season Projects After Week 5

By Mack (Analysis); ΖΓ636 (Adjustments)  ·  October 18, 2026  ·  companion to the power rankings

Published Sep 16, 2026, 10:23 AM PT  ·  Updated Oct 18, 2026, 1:36 PM PT

Take Todd's ratings as they stand after Week 5, run every one of the remaining games through his own spread formula, turn each projected margin into a win probability, and add them up. What comes out is an expected record for all 32 teams and a projected winner in each division.

Expected Wins by Division, Weeks 2–18

Bar = expected wins out of 17 (wins so far plus the sum of win probabilities). Gold = projected division winner. Dashed line = 8.5, a .500 season. Right column = record if every favorite wins.

projected winnerrest of division8.5 wins
Team · nowExpected winsExp W-LFav

AFC East

Bills4-1
11.7-5.3
16-1
Patriots3-2
10.2-6.8
12-5
Jets2-3
6.5-10.5
5-12
Dolphins0-5
3.5-13.5
0-17

Projected winner Bills, 1.4 wins clear

AFC North

Ravens4-1
11.5-5.5
14-3
Bengals3-2
10.3-6.7
13-4
Steelers3-2
9.0-8.0
8-9
Browns3-2
7.2-9.8
3-14

Projected winner Ravens, 1.1 wins clear

AFC South

Jaguars4-1
11.5-5.5
14-3
Colts2-3
8.0-9.0
8-9
Texans1-4
7.6-9.4
7-10
Titans0-5
3.5-13.5
1-16

Projected winner Jaguars, 3.5 wins clear

AFC West

Chiefs4-0
12.2-4.8
15-2
Broncos3-2
10.2-6.8
12-5
Raiders3-2
8.3-8.7
8-9
Chargers0-5
4.7-12.3
2-15

Projected winner Chiefs, 2.0 wins clear

NFC East

Eagles2-3
9.1-7.9
13-4
Giants3-1
8.0-9.0
6-10
Cowboys2-3
7.8-9.2
5-12
Commanders1-3
6.3-10.7
5-11

Projected winner Eagles, 1.1 wins clear

NFC North

Vikings5-0
11.4-5.6
12-5
Lions3-2
10.0-7.0
11-6
Bears3-2
9.7-7.3
11-6
Packers3-2
9.4-7.6
10-7

Projected winner Vikings, 1.3 wins clear

NFC South

Falcons2-3
7.8-9.2
6-11
Panthers2-2
7.6-9.4
5-12
Buccaneers1-4
6.6-10.4
7-10
Saints1-4
5.6-11.4
3-14

Projected winner Falcons, 0.2 wins clear

NFC West

49ers5-0
12.3-4.7
16-1
Seahawks3-2
9.8-7.2
10-7
Rams2-3
9.6-7.4
12-5
Cardinals1-4
4.2-12.8
1-16

Projected winner 49ers, 2.6 wins clear

MACK · ANALYSISSources: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (ratings updated for every final through Week 5 at one tenth of each surprise); ESPN scoreboard feed, schedule and division membership, retrieved 2026-10-18. Win probabilities from a normal scatter of 13.5 points around the projected margin, my parameter. Ratings frozen at their post-Week-5 values; no injuries, byes or rest. For entertainment only; not betting advice. Static page, no tracking.

Who is in control, and who is in a coin flip?

Key Takeaways

  • 3 divisions have a clear favorite: 49ers (12.3 expected wins), Chiefs (12.2 expected wins), Jaguars (11.5 expected wins), each at least 1.5 wins clear of second.
  • 5 are open: Falcons lead the NFC South by 0.2, Eagles lead the NFC East by 1.1, Ravens lead the AFC North by 1.1, Vikings lead the NFC North by 1.3, Bills lead the AFC East by 1.4.
  • The Broncos project to 10.2 wins, second in the AFC West, with the 29th-hardest remaining schedule in the league.

Remaining schedule strength

Average rating of each team's remaining opponents, adjusted for where the game is played. Positive means a harder road.

Ten hardest

  1. Chargers +2.6
  2. Dolphins +2.0
  3. Bears +1.6
  4. Cardinals +1.5
  5. Vikings +1.2
  6. Titans +1.2
  7. Seahawks +1.2
  8. Giants +1.2
  9. Chiefs +1.0
  10. Jets +1.0

Ten easiest

  1. Bengals −0.9
  2. Eagles −0.8
  3. Saints −0.8
  4. Broncos −0.6
  5. Colts −0.4
  6. Jaguars +0.2
  7. Rams +0.2
  8. Lions +0.3
  9. Browns +0.3
  10. Buccaneers +0.3

The whole league sits within 3.5 points from hardest to easiest, less than a strong team's home-field edge, so schedule shifts a projection by a game or so, not a tier. Chargers carry the hardest road; Bengals pair the softest slate with the top rating, which is why they lead the projection. The Broncos are 4th-easiest, part of why they project near .500 despite the Week 1 hit.

How the projection works

For each remaining game the projected home margin is Todd's formula: home-field advantage plus the difference in ratings, with a flat 0.2 at the eight neutral-site games. That margin becomes a win probability by assuming results scatter around the projection with a spread of 13.5 points, which is my parameter and not part of his sheet. A team favored by 3 wins about 59% of the time; favored by 10, about 77%. Expected wins add those probabilities to the wins already in hand. The favorite column is what the sheet would say if it picked every game outright, and the gap between the two columns shows how many coin flips a team faces.

The update factor behind these ratings is one tenth of each game's surprise, softened from one fifth at ΖΓ636's suggestion so no single week dominates the season view.

Ratings are frozen at this week's values. A bad week counts for the whole season until the next update moves it, so treat the table as a snapshot that will be rerun each week.