Broncos @ ChargersAWAY GAME · SoFi Stadium
House rule: doubtful means out. Pat Surtain II is listed DOUBTFUL (Payton, Wednesday: does not expect him to play), so this page treats him as out. Pat Bryant (WR, doubtful, ankle) is treated as out too. Riley Moss is QUESTIONABLE with a rib injury (imaging Monday). The next men up are Jahdae Barron (also the backup nickel) and Kris Abrams-Draine, with Ja'Quan McMillian in the slot.
Denver starts Jahdae Barron at left corner with Riley Moss (questionable, ribs) on the right; if Moss cannot go, Kris Abrams-Draine starts and the nickel thins out. The Chargers' two leading receivers, Tre' Harris (13 catches, 209 yards, 16.1 per catch) and Ladd McConkey (12 for 183, 15.3 per catch), are exactly the kind of deep-ball targets a backup pair struggles with. With Surtain out, the pass-coverage row in the unit table below moves to the Chargers, and the board's number moves from Broncos −3.5 (60%) to Broncos −3.1 (59%); see the reassessment below.
Source: ESPN injury report fetched Oct 8; depth chart, ESPN.
Player matchups ESPN leaders, depth charts and injury report, pulled Oct 8
Harris and McConkey vs. a Denver secondary without Surtain
Edge: Chargers
Broncos
Pat Surtain II OUT (doubtful = out) · CB 
Jahdae Barron starts · CB 
Riley Moss (Q, ribs) · next up Kris Abrams-Draine
Chargers
Tre' Harris 13 rec, 209 yds · WR 
Ladd McConkey 12 rec, 183 yds, 1 TD (Q, foot; Harbaugh expects him to play)This is the matchup of the game, and it now tilts to Los Angeles. Surtain is treated as out. Barron, a rookie nickel by trade, moves outside against two receivers averaging 16.1 and 15.3 yards a catch, and Moss (imaging on his ribs Monday) is the other corner if he plays, Abrams-Draine if not. Herbert's six interceptions are the counterweight: Denver's safeties have to make him pay for the deep shots he will take at the backups.
Quarterback vs. secondary
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Bo Nix — 81/135, 819 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT, 80.4 ratingChargers
Derwin James Jr. (Questionable) · S 
Genesis Smith 2 INT · NB Tarheeb StillNix is throwing one interception every 45 attempts. The Chargers' secondary has four picks but both boundary corners are on the report, so Denver's passing game meets a patched-together group.
Herbert vs. Denver's safeties
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Talanoa Hufanga 2 INT · S 
Brandon Jones 1 INT, 31 tacklesChargers
Justin Herbert — 71/119, 816 yds, 4 TD, 6 INT, 70.6 ratingHerbert has thrown six interceptions in four games, a 5.0% rate. Denver's defense has four interceptions and 21 passes defended, with Hufanga and Jones doing most of it. This is the matchup most likely to produce the game's turning play.
Hampton vs. Denver's run defense
Edge: ChargersBroncos
Alex Singleton 47 tackles · NT 
D.J. Jones · LB 
Justin StrnadChargers
Omarion Hampton 59 car, 238 yds, 3 TD · RB 
Keaton Mitchell 27 car, 124 ydsThe Chargers run for 121.5 yards a game at 4.3 per carry; Denver runs for 81.3 at 3.6. This is Los Angeles' one clear advantage, and Denver's tackling has been under watch since Week 1 (see Missed Tackles below).
Denver's pass rush vs. an injured Chargers line
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Zach Allen 3 sacks · OLB 
Nik Bonitto · OLB 
Jonah EllissChargers
Rashawn Slater OUT (high ankle) · RT 
Joe Alt (Q, neck) · LG 
Trevor Penning (Q, concussion)Los Angeles has already allowed 12 sacks for 75 yards. Its left tackle is out and its right tackle and left guard did not practice Wednesday. Allen and Bonitto against backup tackles is the biggest edge on the field.
Khalil Mack vs. Denver's tackles
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Garett Bolles · RT 
Mike McGlinchey — 5 sacks allowed all seasonChargers
Khalil Mack 3 sacks · OLB 
Tuli Tuipulotu 2 sacksDenver has given up five sacks in four games, the fewest-pressured pocket in this matchup. Mack is still the Chargers' best pass rusher; McGlinchey's side is where he lines up most.
Waddle and Sutton vs. the Chargers' corners
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Jaylen Waddle 16 rec, 185 yds, 1 TD · WR 
Courtland Sutton (healthy, not on the report; 9 catches for 86 yds on 21 targets this season, 0 TD) · WR3 
Marvin Mims Jr. / 
Troy Franklin with 
Pat Bryant out (doubtful = out)Chargers
Cam Hart (Q) · CB 
Donte Jackson (Q, hamstring, did not practice Wed)Both Chargers starting corners are questionable. If Jackson sits, Waddle draws a backup on one side all afternoon. Sutton is healthy but has 86 yards all season on 21 targets, and Bryant's 133 yards leave with him, so Waddle carries the passing game.
Dobbins and Harvey vs. the Chargers' linebackers
EvenBroncos
J.K. Dobbins 46 car, 161 yds · RB 
RJ Harvey 20 catches, team leadChargers
Daiyan Henley 26 tackles · LB 
Del'Shawn Phillips 24 tacklesDenver's ground game is averaging 3.6 a carry, so Harvey as a receiver out of the backfield is the release valve. Henley and Phillips have to cover him as much as tackle him.
Tight ends in the red zone
EvenBroncos
Evan Engram (1 catch on 5 targets last week) · TE 
Nate Adkins 2 TDChargers
Charlie Kolar (Q, forearm) · TE 
Oronde Gadsden 1 TDDenver scores touchdowns on 63.6% of red-zone trips to Los Angeles' 58.3%. Adkins has two scores on few targets; Engram's usage is the question.
Kickers
EvenBroncos
Wil Lutz — 5 of 7, long 52, one blockedChargers
Cameron Dicker — 6 of 8, long 40, 0 of 1 from 50+Both have missed twice. Lutz has shown range to 52; Dicker was 3 for 3 last week but has not connected from beyond 40 this season.
Punters
Edge: BroncosBroncos
Jeremy Crawshaw — 49.7 gross, 47.4 net, 9 of 19 inside the 20Chargers
JK Scott — 45.1 gross, 42.9 net, 4 of 16 inside the 20, one blockedFour and a half yards of net difference per punt and more than twice the inside-the-20 rate. In a game the market has within a field goal, field position is a real edge.
Returners
Edge: BroncosBroncosMarvin Mims Jr. (foot, full practice Wed) — team 27.6 KR avg, 9.6 PR avgChargers
Derius Davis — team 24.9 KR avg, 4.7 PR avgDenver's return averages lead on both kicks and punts; the Chargers fair-catch 70% of punts.
Coaching staffs tenure, experience, and what the beat has said this season
Announced after Thursday practice: “We'll make a change offensively … I'll call the plays.” Webb stays OC. gazette.com, Oct 8
Broncos
Chargers
Sources: Payton · Webb · Broncos staff · Joseph · Kiszla · Harbaugh · McDaniel · O'Leary · Chargers staff · 0–4 report · Harbaugh presser · Ficken. Photos: Wikipedia.
Missed tackles the number Denver's defense has carried since Week 1
Broncos defense — most missed tackles in the NFL
- Season: 44 missed tackles through Week 4, most in the league (Eagles next at 36), per Pro Football Reference; PFF counts 48. Rush defense 142.8 yards a game, 30th.
- Week 1 at Kansas City: 28 missed tackles, a 29.8% miss rate, 247 yards gained after missed tackles (Next Gen Stats); the third-worst single game since 2018. PFF counted 24.
- Week 2 vs Jacksonville: 10 missed tackles. Weeks 3 and 4 per-game counts have not been published; in Week 4 Hufanga alone missed four (PFF).
- Who is missing them (PFF, through Week 4): Talanoa Hufanga 8 · Riley Moss 6 · Ja'Quan McMillian 6 · Alex Singleton 6. Through Week 2, Moss's miss rate was 40%.
Why it matters Sunday. Three of the four leaders are the secondary (Hufanga, Moss, McMillian), and Moss is questionable. The Chargers' Omarion Hampton has forced 15 missed tackles on 59 carries with 3.12 yards after contact per attempt (PFF). A tackling-poor defense against a contact-heavy back is the Chargers' path to controlling the game.
Sources: PFR totals via BetMGM, Oct 7 · PFF counts, Yahoo Oct 6 · Week 1 NGS, Denver7 · Week 4 PFF grades · Hampton, PFF
Chargers defense
- Season: 24 missed tackles through Week 4, 10th-most (Pro Football Reference). Per-game counts and a Next Gen Stats miss rate have not been published.
- Week 4 at Seattle: three sacks; Tuipulotu had an interception and a forced fumble.
Denver's counter. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey are averaging 3.6 a carry behind a line that has not produced a 20-yard run. Denver is more likely to beat missed tackles with Harvey's 20 catches out of the backfield than with the ground game.
Sources: PFR via BetMGM · Chargers.com Week 5
Reassessment doubtful players treated as out
What changed. Surtain (CB) and Bryant (WR) move from doubtful to out. Under the board's injury rule that takes Denver's one-week hit from −1.4 to −1.8; the Chargers' hit stays −2.35 (Slater out, eleven questionable). Nobody on the Chargers is doubtful.
| Board, Tuesday | Doubtful = out | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Broncos −3.5 | Broncos −3.1 | Broncos −3.5 |
| Broncos win probability | 60% | 59% | — |
| Straight-up pick | Broncos | Broncos | |
| Spread lean | none (edge 0.0) | none (edge +0.4; lean needs 2.0) | |
| Total | Over 42.5 (projected 42.6) | Over 42.5, unchanged | 42.5 |
Mack's view (judgment, not the formula). The rule prices a cornerback at half a point, the same as a fullback. Losing Surtain against this pair of receivers is worth more than that, and the tackling numbers put three of Denver's four worst tacklers in the same secondary. I keep the Broncos straight up on the strength of the pass-rush mismatch and Herbert's six interceptions, but I would not lay 3.5 points. If a side has to be taken against the spread, it is the Chargers +3.5 at home.
Formula: HFA + (rating + injury hit) difference, rating scale 13.5 points per standard deviation; ratings after Week 4 (Broncos +2.7, Chargers −1.0, Chargers HFA 1.2). Rule: non-QB Out −0.5, Doubtful −0.3, Questionable −0.15, capped at −2.5.
Unit by unit ESPN team statistics through Week 4, fetched Oct 7; each row says which side has the edge and why
| Unit | Broncos | Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record and scoring | 2-2, scored 74, allowed 94 | 0-4, scored 67, allowed 106 | Broncos |
| Denver has two wins and is outscoring the Chargers by seven points over four games. Los Angeles has lost all four and allows 26.5 points a game to Denver's 23.5. | |||
| Passing offense | 204.8 yds/g · 6.1 per attempt · 60.0% · 80.4 rating · 5 TD, 3 INT | 204.0 yds/g · 6.8 per attempt · 59.2% · 70.0 rating · 4 TD, 6 INT | Broncos |
| The yardage is identical. The difference is ball security: Nix has half the interceptions on more attempts, which is why his passer rating is ten points higher. The Chargers gain more per attempt (6.8 vs 6.1) because they push the ball deeper, and that deeper game is also where the interceptions come from. | |||
| Rushing offense | 81.3 yds/g · 3.6 per carry · 2 TD | 121.5 yds/g · 4.3 per carry · 3 TD | Chargers |
| This is the Chargers' one clear edge. They run 40 more yards a game at a better rate, and Hampton has three of their seven touchdowns. Denver's run game has not produced a 20-yard carry all season (long of 17). | |||
| Pass protection | 5 sacks allowed, 23 yards lost | 12 sacks allowed, 75 yards lost | Broncos |
| Denver's line has kept Nix clean; the Chargers have given up more than twice as many sacks and now lose their left tackle. Expect that gap to widen Sunday. | |||
| Pass rush | 8 sacks · 17 tackles for loss | 10 sacks · 20 tackles for loss | Chargers, slightly |
| Los Angeles has a few more sacks and stops behind the line, mostly from Mack and Tuipulotu. The numbers are close, and the Chargers' edge here is smaller than Denver's edge in protection. | |||
| Pass coverage | 4 INT · 21 passes defended · 1 pick-six · Surtain out | 4 INT · 17 passes defended · 0 | Chargers, with Surtain out |
| On the season Denver gets hands on more throws and has a pick-six. But those numbers were built with Surtain on the field. With him treated as out and Moss questionable, the Chargers' two deep threats against Barron and a backup is the better side of this row. | |||
| Turnovers | −1 margin (5 giveaways, 4 takeaways) | −3 margin (10 giveaways, 7 takeaways) | Broncos |
| The Chargers have turned it over ten times in four games, twice Denver's total. They also take it away more often (7 vs 4), so this is a high-variance group on both sides of the ball. | |||
| Third down and red zone | 39.6% on third down · 63.6% red-zone TD | 34.6% on third down · 58.3% red-zone TD | Broncos |
| Denver converts five points more on third down and scores touchdowns more often once inside the 20. Los Angeles settles for field goals on a third of its red-zone trips (33.3% vs Denver's 18.2%). | |||
| Kicking | Lutz 5 of 7 (71.4%), long 52, 1 blocked · 5 of 5 PAT | Dicker 6 of 8 (75.0%), long 40 · 7 of 7 PAT | Even |
| Two misses each. Lutz has the longer range this season; Dicker has the slightly better percentage from shorter range. | |||
| Punting | 49.7 gross · 47.4 net · 47% inside the 20 | 45.1 gross · 42.9 net · 25% inside the 20 · 1 blocked | Broncos, clearly |
| Crawshaw is netting four and a half more yards a punt and pinning the opponent inside the 20 almost twice as often. Over a typical five-punt game that is about 22 yards of field position. | |||
| Return game | 27.6 per kick return · 9.6 per punt return | 24.9 per kick return · 4.7 per punt return | Broncos |
| Mims is averaging more on both. The Chargers fair-catch 70% of their punt returns, so they rarely gain anything there. | |||
| Kick coverage | Opponents 24.6 per kick return · 11.8% touchbacks | Opponents 25.4 per kick return · 23.5% touchbacks | Even |
| Both coverage units allow similar return yardage. The Chargers kick more touchbacks, which under the current kickoff rule is a trade-off, not an advantage. | |||
| Penalties | 29 for 187 yards | 38 for 289 yards | Broncos |
| Los Angeles is flagged nine more times for 100 more yards, including a 16-penalty, 130-yard game in Week 1. Twelve of its first downs have come by penalty, which inflates its yardage totals. | |||
Points allowed from the four box scores; ESPN's team feed does not report defensive yardage, so defense is shown by sacks, takeaways and passes defended.