Broncos vs SeahawksHOME GAME · Empower Field at Mile High

Answer: bottom quarter as a passer, top five at staying clean. Against the other 31 teams' leading passers, Nix ranks 26th in passer rating, 27th in completion rate and 29th in yards per attempt. His ball security is average (13th-fewest interceptions) and his sack rate is 4th-best, which is the line in front of him as much as him. The short answer: he is not losing games, but the passing game is not winning them either.

Each team's leading passer by yards (32 players), ESPN season statistics fetched 2026-10-14 14:55 PT. Some teams' leaders have played three or four games (Jackson, Mahomes, Penix, Daniels, Darnold and others). Sack % = sacks / (attempts + sacks). Orange rank = top ten, red = bottom ten.

Denver: 44 missed tackles, tied with Buffalo for the most in the NFL (Pro Football Reference, via BetMGM, updated Oct 14). That count may not yet include the Chargers game; ESPN's Jeff Legwold noted "three missed tackles on Chargers running back Kimani Vidal's 42-yard touchdown run."

Seattle: 20 on the same PFR list, tied for about 23rd. NFL.com's preview goes further and says Seattle has "the fewest missed tackles in the league"; the two sources disagree, but both put Seattle among the surest tacklers.

Why it matters Thursday. Denver gives up a league-high 3.92 yards after contact per rush to running backs (Sharp Football Analysis), and two of its best tacklers in the secondary are on the injury report. Seattle's backs do not need to break many tackles if Denver misses them.

Per-player counts through Week 5 were not published by the time of writing; last week's leaders (Hufanga 8, Moss 6, McMillian 6, Singleton 6, PFF through Week 4) are not updated here.

What changed since Tuesday's board. No official game statuses had been posted on Wednesday. ESPN projects Surtain doubtful and Hufanga out; under the house rule doubtful means out. Jonah Coleman (RB) is also now on injured reserve. That takes Denver's injury hit from −1.1 to −2.15. Seattle's moves from −1.6 to −2.15: ESPN now lists linebackers Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt out (about 3 PM PT Wednesday), Smith-Njigba is off the list, Leonard Williams is questionable, Charbonnet out and Neal on IR. Drew Lock is the backup quarterback, so no QB hit.

On the board this week this is a props game: everyone picks total sacks (5.5), total takeaways (3.5) and total points (40.5). Mack's props: sacks Under, takeaways Over, total Over. His winner and spread pick above are for the record only.

Mack's view (judgment, not the formula). The formula prices Surtain and Hufanga at half a point each. Against Smith-Njigba that is too cheap. I keep the Broncos straight up because of the pass-rush edge and Darnold's interception rate, but with less confidence than the 56% suggests.

Formula: HFA + (rating + injury hit) difference, 13.5 points per standard deviation; ratings after Week 5. Rule: non-QB Out/IR −0.5, Doubtful −0.3, Questionable −0.15, capped at −2.5. Practice participation: denverbroncos.com and seahawks.com injury reports, Tuesday (estimated).